At the 9th Solarpraxis Forum in Berlin, solar industry experts discussed the development of the German photovoltaic market. Their conclusion? The financial crisis will not have any significant effects on the local industry. There are other factors, however, such as EEG-Novelle (German renewable energy law), for example, which may give cause for less positive prognoses, for the large-scale power plant market at least.

A general overview of the current market situation in Germany was provided by Carsten Körnig, Managing Director of German Solar Industry Federation (BSW-Solar). With regard to the industry’s turnover figures, the Federation expects an increase from EUR 8 bn at the moment to approx. EUR 11 bn in 2010. In retrospect one could say that the industry's figures since 2003 have increased tenfold, and the solar industry in Germany is now stronger in turnover figures than biotechnology. BSW-Solar therefore also expects an increase in jobs in the industry. While the employment figure in 2008 was 48,000, an increase to 55,800 jobs is expected for 2010.

The financial crisis is not an ostensible problem for a lot of BSW members. The crisis is ranked among the other business risks in the industry at fifth place. 68 percent of the companies affected do not expect any negative effects on the demand for solar technology. Carsten Körnig believes there will be future challenges for the industry, in winning over qualified employees and further expanding technological leadership, among others.

Christof Stein, Director of the KfW Bank Group, makes a similar evaluation of the market to Mr. König’s.  He goes on to also point out that with the financing of solar technology with regard to KfW and ERP promotion of environmental friendliness, there will be some changes in the coming year. The transparency of industrial environment and climate protection policies will also increase, he says. It is also planned to extend the periods offered for credits, and make changeovers to quarterly repayment rates.

The CEO of Phoenix Solar AG, Andreas Hänel, however, offered up a rather different analysis of the market situation. According to Mr. Hänel, the financial crisis has created increased demands on equity ratios. Refinancing conditions have also deteriorated, and financing approvals in the banking industry are becoming long and drawn out. Nevertheless, he points out, investor interest in large-scale photovoltaic projects remains high, but there are some factors that could have negative effects on the development of the large-scale power plant market.

On the basis of EEG-Novelle, for example, which plans for a reduction in grid buyback prices for solar systems in 2009, the economical implementation of large-scale rooftop and free field systems will only make sense in southern Germany in areas with high levels of sunshine. He also believes that the expected price reduction in the production of crystalline solar modules is too low to able to justify the costs-covering erection of large free field systems in Germany. With regard to smaller and medium-sized systems (1-100 KW), the price reduction is, by contrast, certainly big enough to expect growth in this market segment. For the coming year Mr. Hänel says that fewer large-scale power plants will actually go onto the grid. But because their share of the photovoltaic systems installed in Germany is less than 10 percent, there could nevertheless be growth of 30 percent with regard to the overall market.