As reported by the Federal Statistical Office, the consumer price index for Germany is expected to rise 2.5% in September 2007 – based on the results available from six Länder – compared with September 2006 (August 2007: +1.9%). This is the highest year-on-year rate of price increase since September 2005 (also 2.5%).
Compared with the preceding month, the rate of change will be +0.2%.
This development is above all due to the trend in the prices of mineral oil products. Increases in the prices of liquid fuel and motor fuels of between 1.0% and 6.1% and between 8.3% and 11.6%, respectively, were observed in the six Länder in September 2007 compared with a year earlier. Compared with the previous month, the liquid fuel and motor fuel prices were up between 4.5% and 9.0% and between 1.0% and 2.2%, respectively. The relatively high year-on-year rate of price increase can, among other things, be explained by the fact that, nationwide, the prices of liquid fuel and motor fuels declined 4.7% and 7.8%, respectively, in September 2006 on August 2006 (basis-related effect).
In addition, food prices continued to increase, which contributed to the relatively high rate of price increase, too. Food prices were up between 1.8% and 3.4% in the Länder in September 2007 on September 2006.
The prices of package holidays (–5.8%) and holiday homes (–26.3%) saw a seasonal month-on-month decrease. However, they were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, above the levels observed a year earlier.
The harmonised consumer price index for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, will presumably rise 2.7% in September 2007 compared with September 2006 (August 2007: +2.0%). Compared with the previous month, the index will rise 0.2%.
The final results for September 2007 will be available on 16 October 2007.
Since the estimation of the consumer price index was first performed on base 2000 in March 2003, the estimate was confirmed by the final results in thirty nine cases. In fifteen cases, the rate of change was by 0.1 percentage points below or above the final result. For further information please contact: